As of 19:44 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, “8-11” leads “How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?” on Polymarket at 40% (-2pp in 24h), followed by “4-7” at 30% (-4pp in 24h) and “<4” at 14% (-6pp in 24h), out of 5 outcomes. The event has $2.4k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket and Kalshi.
vol cum
$2.4k
vol 24h
$2.4k
outcomes
5
ends
Nov 2, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
IranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
marketselected outcome
8-11
rank #1
United Kingdom
40¢
▼ 2.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$641
vol 24h
$641
spread
0.05
ends
Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page.
All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 26, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once.
Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO.
Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources.
This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 1, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period.
The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.
