Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027
As of 22:44 UTC on 26 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Gemini Carbon released by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 87% (+37pp in 24h) and “November 30” at 71% (+23pp in 24h). The event has $4.4k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
vol cum
$4.3k
vol 24h
$4.4k
outcomes
2
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
AITechGeminigoogleAI Releases
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
87¢
▲ 36.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$2.8k
vol 24h
$2.9k
spread
0.01
ends
Jan 1, 2027
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
