As of 19:35 UTC on 27 Oct 2026, “Very severe cyclonic storm” leads “How strong will Arnab be?” on Polymarket at 96% (+23pp in 24h), followed by “Super cyclonic storm” at 3% (-16pp in 24h) and “Extremely severe cyclonic storm” at 2% (-13pp in 24h), out of 4 outcomes. The event has $2.7k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Arnab. Peak intensity means the highest category of cyclonic disturbance that the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi (RSMC New Delhi), operated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), assigns to Arnab's observed intensity in a Tropical Cyclone Advisory published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". RSMC New Delhi's own bounds, in 3-minute maximum sustained surface wind, are: "Severe cyclonic storm or weaker" is under 64 kt, "Very severe cyclonic storm" is 64 to 89 kt, "Extremely severe cyclonic storm" is 90 to 119 kt, and "Super cyclonic storm" is 120 kt or more.
RSMC New Delhi states the category in the subject line of each Tropical Cyclone Advisory and in the first row of the advisory's forecast table, which gives the storm's intensity at the observation time the advisory is based on. Only that observed intensity will be considered. Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. National bulletins, press releases and other IMD products will not be considered, and neither will classifications issued by any agency other than RSMC New Delhi. Post-season best track data and reports for Arnab will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once RSMC New Delhi stops publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab. If RSMC New Delhi has not stopped publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest category published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.
Revisions published before RSMC New Delhi stops publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.
If RSMC New Delhi corrects an advisory as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected advisory will be used. If RSMC New Delhi removes an advisory as erroneous without replacement, the highest category published in the remaining advisories will be used. Otherwise the published advisory stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in RSMC New Delhi's published advisories will not be considered.
Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous advisory under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Advisories published by RSMC New Delhi for Arnab at https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/, specifically the category of cyclonic disturbance stated for the storm's observed intensity. On that page, the latest Tropical Cyclone Advisory is the link labeled "RSMC Bulletin" in the "Cyclone Warnings/Advisory" section; the "National Bulletin", "TCAC Bulletin" and other links in that section are different products. Past Tropical Cyclone Advisories are archived at https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/archive-information.php?internal_menu=Mg==&menu_id=OQ==, where each is listed as "RSMC Bulletin based on" followed by its observation time and date (for example, "RSMC Bulletin based on 09:00:00 UTC of 26-10-2026").
