As of 20:27 UTC on 27 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “How strong will In-fa be?” on Polymarket are “Violent” at 51% and “Super Typhoon” at 41% (-18pp in 24h). The event has $923 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Predict and Kalshi.
vol cum
$943
vol 24h
$923
outcomes
2
ends
Nov 11, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Every market in this event may resolve to "No".
"Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en.
"Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html.
For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" in any analysis it publishes for the storm by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm. Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for In-fa will not be considered for resolution.
If JMA stops publishing analyses for In-fa without having assigned it the intensity class "Violent", this market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.
If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.
Otherwise, once a published analysis has assigned In-fa the intensity class "Violent", this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions.
Every market in this event may resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for In-fa (JMA typhoon number 2631) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past analyses for T2631 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202631.html.en, which republishes JMA's track data and shows Maximum Wind instead of the Intensity class; there, a Maximum Wind of 105 kt or more corresponds to "Violent".
Please note that this market is about the intensity class according to JMA, not according to any other agency.
