As of 06:34 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Trump declares a national emergency by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 37% (-12pp in 24h) and “November 30” at 14% (-15pp in 24h). The event has $13 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Predict.
vol cum
$13
vol 24h
$13
outcomes
2
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
NEATrumpPoliticsTrump Presidency
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
United States
37¢
▼ 12.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$3
vol 24h
$3
spread
0.23
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency pursuant to the National Emergencies Act between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, announcements of an intention to declare a national emergency, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that do not declare a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals, continuations, or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify. Amendments to or expansions of previously existing national emergencies will also not qualify unless they formally declare a new national emergency.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
