As of 07:02 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, “25 bps increase” leads “Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in March?” on Polymarket at 49% (+4pp in 24h), followed by “No Change” at 35% (-15pp in 24h) and “50+ bps decrease” at 7% (-42pp in 24h), out of 5 outcomes. The event has $637 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Predict.
vol cum
$721
vol 24h
$637
outcomes
5
ends
Mar 23, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
AusRBAWorldEconomyRecurringGlobal Rates
marketselected outcome
25 bps increase
rank #1
Australia
49¢
▲ 4.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$180
vol 24h
$180
spread
0.27
ends
Mar 23, 2027
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 22 and March 23, 2027, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
