As of 02:11 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, “38.0–38.4” leads “Trump approval rating on November 6?” on Polymarket at 24% (-22pp in 24h), followed by “38.5–38.9” at 21% (-25pp in 24h) and “37.5–37.9” at 17% (-29pp in 24h), out of 6 outcomes. The event has $394 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026?” on Kalshi, an event with 8 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless and Manifold.
vol cum
$394
vol 24h
$394
outcomes
6
ends
Nov 7, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
TrumpApprovalPoliticsRecurringapprovals
marketselected outcome
38.0–38.4
rank #1
24¢
▼ 22.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$52
vol 24h
$52
spread
0.04
ends
Nov 7, 2026
This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026.
This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources.
If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
