pdatanews260
event29 outcomes

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Dec 1, 2026

As of 08:23 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, “No release by November 30” leads “Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?” on Polymarket at 28% (-17pp in 24h), followed by “November 25” at 26% and “November 19” at 26%, out of 29 outcomes. The event has $2.9k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket and Kalshi.

vol cum
$2.9k
vol 24h
$2.9k
outcomes
29
ends
Dec 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 29
AIMetaTechMuse SparkAI Releases
marketselected outcome
No release by November 30
rank #1
28¢
▼ 17.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$149
vol 24h
$149
spread
0.34
ends
Dec 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

timeline
opened · Nov 3, 2026opencloses · Dec 1, 2026
No release by November 30 · prices over time
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