What is the current probability for "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?": 4-6 46%, 7-9 42%, 10-12 30% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event has no fixed resolution date; check the source (polymarket) for resolution rules.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/133793. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event6 outcomes

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

·Politics

vol cum

$60.2k

vol 24h

$70

outcomes

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showing 5 of 6

US ElectionPoliticsTrumpCongressPrimariesElections

marketselected outcome

4-6

rank #1

United States

46¢

▲ 1.2pp

24h change

vol cum

$11.6k

vol 24h

$16

spread

0.91

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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

timeline

opened · Jan 14, 2026opencloses

prices over time · 4-6 highlighted

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