What will the biggest earthquake be on November 12, 2026?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Nov 13, 2026
As of 13:17 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, “5.3 to 5.4” leads “What will the biggest earthquake be on November 12, 2026?” on Polymarket at 50% (+1pp in 24h), followed by “5.7 to 5.8” at 50% and “5.9 to 6.0” at 50%, out of 6 outcomes. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini.
vol cum
$0
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
6
ends
Nov 13, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
WeatherEarthquakesHide From New
marketselected outcome
5.3 to 5.4
rank #1
50¢
▲ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$0
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.97
ends
Nov 13, 2026
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 12, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 12, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 13, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for November 12, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 13, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
