Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Feb 1, 2027
As of 18:03 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 3 markets in “Gemini Hydrogen released by...?” on Polymarket are “January 31” at 96% (+46pp in 24h), “December 31” at 90% (+40pp in 24h) and “November 30” at 73% (+23pp in 24h). The event has $3k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
vol cum
$3k
vol 24h
$3k
outcomes
3
ends
Feb 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
AITechGeminigoogleAI ReleasesGemini Hydrogen
marketselected outcome
January 31
rank #1
96¢
▲ 45.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$835
vol 24h
$835
spread
0.03
ends
Feb 1, 2027
On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Hydrogen" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Hydrogen" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Hydrogen, Gemini 4 Hydrogen, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash) or an update to an existing Gemini model (including an update released under that model's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Hydrogen". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Hydrogen will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
