pdatanews257
event15 outcomes

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 04:28 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, “4.25%” leads “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?” on Polymarket at 74% (+2pp in 24h), followed by “4.0%” at 23% (-1pp in 24h) and “≥ 4.5%” at 4% (+1pp in 24h), out of 15 outcomes. The event has $435 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?” on Predict, an event with 6 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 19 related events on Polymarket, Predict, Kalshi, Limitless and Opinion.

vol cum
$7.1M
vol 24h
$435
outcomes
15
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 15
Fed RatesEconomic PolicyTrumpFedPoliticsFed ChairKevin Warsh
marketselected outcome
4.25%
rank #1
United States
74¢
▲ 1.9pp
24h change
vol cum
$585.1k
vol 24h
$13
spread
0.02
ends
Jan 1, 2027

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

timeline
opened · Jan 12, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027
4.25% · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history

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