What is the current probability for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?": 30%+ 34%, 40%+ 28%, 25%+ 17% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 6/30/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/191774. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event4 outcomes

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

·Science and Technology·ends Jun 30, 2026

vol cum

$21.2k

vol 24h

$27

outcomes

ends

Jun 30, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AIxAIGrokElon MuskTechBig Tech

marketselected outcome

30%+

rank #1

34¢

▼ 11.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$12.7k

vol 24h

spread

0.33

ends

Feb 28, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jan 30, 2026closedresolved · Feb 28, 2026

prices over time · 30%+ highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history