As of 10:12 UTC on 9 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 5 markets in “Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?” on Polymarket are “October 31” at 9% (-8pp in 24h), “April 30” at 0% and “May 31” at 0%. The event has $881 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket.
vol cum
$237.6k
vol 24h
$881
outcomes
5
ends
Nov 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
PoliticsUkraine MapGeopolitics
marketselected outcome
October 31
rank #1
RussiaUkraine
9¢
▼ 8.4pp
24h change
vol cum
$2.5k
vol 24h
$881
spread
0.09
ends
Nov 1, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast, (50.797758° N, 35.315210° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
