Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Source: polymarket·Event ID: 225858·Ends:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
- Yes: 61¢
- No: 39¢
Audias Flores-Silva
- Yes: 100¢
- No: 0¢
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
- Yes: 54¢
- No: 46¢
Juan Reyes Mejía González
- Yes: 49¢
- No: 51¢
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
- Yes: 49¢
- No: 52¢
Juan Pablo Ledezma
- Yes: 47¢
- No: 54¢
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
- Yes: 42¢
- No: 59¢
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
- Yes: 28¢
- No: 72¢