Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
As of 00:33 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?” at 2% (-1pp in 24h). The market has $125 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Limitless and Kalshi.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
