As of 01:16 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 8 markets in “Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?” on Kalshi are “U.S.–Mexico interim agreement” at 41%, “U.S.–Canada interim agreement” at 26% and “Trilateral revised deal” at 24%. The event has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, Opinion and Limitless.
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vol cum
$13.2k
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
8
ends
Jan 8, 2027
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marketselected outcome
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
rank #1
United StatesMexicoCanada
U
41¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$572
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.10
ends
Jan 8, 2027
If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
