USMCA extended in 2026?
As of 08:58 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “USMCA extended in 2026?” at 11% (+1pp in 24h). The market has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Opinion and Manifold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement. The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
