Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
As of 16:13 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?” at 4% (+1pp in 24h). The market has $7.6k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?” on Manifold, priced at 19%. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Limitless.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
