US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
As of 02:50 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Cuba military clash in 2026?” at 13% (+2pp in 24h). The market has $245 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Limitless.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
