Regime change in Cuba by 2030?
As of 09:29 UTC on 28 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Regime change in Cuba by 2030?” at 63%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Limitless and Kalshi.
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if there is a change in the fundamental structure of Cuba's political system by December 31, 2030. Regime change is defined as the replacement of the current one-party communist system with a different form of government, whether through democratic transition, internal power restructuring, or other means. The resolution will be determined by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, AFP) reporting a change in the constitutional framework, the legal status of the Communist Party's monopoly on power, or the establishment of a functioning multi-party system. If the Communist Party remains the sole legal party and the current constitutional structure remains intact, the market resolves NO.
