Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

·Politics

ChinaTaiwan

4%

▲ 0.1pp

24h change

vol cum

$8.9k

vol 24h

$0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2027

<p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p>Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.</p><p>The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.</p>