Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
As of 17:48 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, Polymarket prices “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?” at 10%. The market has $21.9k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?” on Manifold, priced at 9%. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket and Manifold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.