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When will China invade Taiwan
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M32.9k
vol 24h
M0
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9
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Jan 1, 2050
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Must be an attempt at invading the main island. A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this). I made a single choice market which some may prefer. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan-qIyhnCZ5UE)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar?play=true)
warschina-taiwan-potential-conflictgeopoliticschinataiwan
marketselected outcome
Before 2050
rank #1
ChinaTaiwan
51¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M190
vol 24h
M0
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n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2050
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opened · Feb 27, 2024opencloses · Jan 1, 2050
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