When will China invade Taiwan
As of 20:29 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 9 markets in “When will China invade Taiwan” on Manifold are “Before 2050” at 51%, “Before 2040” at 45% and “Before 2035” at 37%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
Must be an attempt at invading the main island. A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this). I made a single choice market which some may prefer. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan-qIyhnCZ5UE)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar?play=true)
