When will China invade Taiwan

·World·ends Jan 1, 2050

vol cum

M33.2k

vol 24h

M0

outcomes

9

ends

Jan 1, 2050

Must be an attempt at invading the main island. A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this). I made a single choice market which some may prefer. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan-qIyhnCZ5UE)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar?play=true)