Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

·Politics

ChinaTaiwan

8%

▼ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$448.2k

vol 24h

$16

spread

0.01

ends

Jul 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.