What is the current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 4% on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/34044. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

·Politics

ChinaTaiwan

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$39.4M

vol 24h

$63.8k

spread

0.00

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 4¢

No 96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

PoliticsWorldGeopoliticsForeign PolicyChinaEarn 4%

timeline

opened · Jul 24, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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