marketsingle market
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
United StatesIran
10%
▼ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
M103.3k
vol 24h
M101
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2027
YES 10¢
NO 90¢
"invade" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran. By themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.
donald-trumpwarsiranus-politicsgeopolitics
timeline
opened · Jan 1, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027
