Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Manifold·Politics

United StatesIran

As of 00:35 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?” at 15% (+1pp in 24h). The market has M$1.4k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” on Limitless, priced at 17%. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Limitless, Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

"invade" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran. By themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.