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markets·Politics
opentrade on Manifold ↗
marketsingle market

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Manifold·Politics
United StatesIran
W
18%
▲ 3.5pp
24h change
vol cum
M63.7k
vol 24h
M617
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2027
YES 18¢
NO 82¢

"invade" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran. By themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.

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opened · Jan 1, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027
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