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Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Polymarket·Politics
United States
11%
1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$275k
vol 24h
$3.1k
spread
0.01
ends
Jan 1, 2027
Yes 11¢
No 90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

VenezuelaPoliticsTrumpGeopoliticsMacro Geopolitics
timeline
opened · Jan 4, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · 24h windows
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