Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
As of 17:50 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?” at 9% (+1pp in 24h). The market has $1.2k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Limitless.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
