What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 6% (+2pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/145864. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

·Politics

United StatesColombia

▲ 2.4pp

24h change

vol cum

$70.3k

vol 24h

$42.9k

spread

0.03

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 6¢

No 94¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

PoliticsVenezuelaGeopoliticsColombiaTrump

timeline

opened · Jan 5, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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