What is the current probability for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner": Luke Bronin 50%, John Larson 39%, Jillian Gilchrest 3% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/11/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/232585. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event6 outcomes

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

·Elections·ends Aug 11, 2026

vol cum

$10.6k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Aug 11, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

MidtermsUS ElectionPrimariesElectionsHouse PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryConnecticut PrimaryAugust 11 Primaries

marketselected outcome

Luke Bronin

rank #1

United States

50¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$4.3k

vol 24h

spread

0.22

ends

Aug 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Feb 26, 2026opencloses · Aug 11, 2026

prices over time · Luke Bronin highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history