What is the current probability for "Iran leadership change by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?": June 30, 2027 26%, December 31 14%, November 30 9% (top 3 of 14 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jul 1, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/255195. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event14 outcomes

Iran leadership change by...?

·Politics·ends Jul 1, 2027

vol cum

$25.8M

vol 24h

$409.2k

outcomes

ends

Jul 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 14

PoliticsIranIran RegimeGeopoliticsMojtabaayatollahKhameneiMojtaba Khamenei

marketselected outcome

June 30, 2027

rank #1

Iran

26¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$317.2k

vol 24h

$300

spread

0.01

ends

Jul 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

timeline

opened · Jun 29, 2026opencloses · Jul 1, 2027

June 30, 2027 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history