What is the current probability for "Netanyahu out by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Netanyahu out by December 31?": December 31 54%, July 31 3%, June 30 0% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/34051. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event6 outcomes

Netanyahu out by...?

·World·ends Dec 31, 2026

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$122.8M

vol 24h

$78k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

WorldGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsraelPoliticsEarn 4%

marketselected outcome

December 31

rank #1

Israel

54¢

▲ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.6M

vol 24h

$10.2k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jul 24, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

prices over time · December 31 highlighted

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