What is the current probability for "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner": Randy Fine 99%, Aaron Baker 1%, Dan Bilzerian 1% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/18/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/376092. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

pasttrade on Polymarket

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event8 outcomes

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner

·Politics·ends Aug 18, 2026

vol cum

$269.1k

vol 24h

$34.7k

outcomes

ends

Aug 18, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

PoliticsHouse Primaryprimary electionsFlorida PrimaryRepublican PrimaryPrimariesElectionsAugust 18 Primaries

marketselected outcome

Randy Fine

rank #1

United States

99¢

▲ 2.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$38k

vol 24h

$4.5k

spread

0.01

ends

Aug 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Apr 13, 2026closedresolved · Aug 18, 2026

Randy Fine · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history