What is the current probability for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?": Abiy Ahmed 96%, Gedion Timothewos 2%, Belete Molla 1% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 6/1/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/411239. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

pasttrade on Polymarket

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event9 outcomes

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

·Elections·ends Jun 1, 2026

vol cum

$267.8M

vol 24h

$936.6k

outcomes

ends

Jun 1, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

EthiopiaElectionsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsPolitics

marketselected outcome

Abiy Ahmed

rank #1

Ethiopia

96¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$121.2k

vol 24h

$620

spread

0.02

ends

Jun 1, 2026

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Apr 27, 2026closedresolved · Jun 1, 2026

Abiy Ahmed · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history