US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

·Culture

United States

37%

▲ 0.2pp

24h change

vol cum

$520

vol 24h

$0

spread

0.70

ends

Dec 31, 2026

The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.