What is the current probability for "Who will acquire TikTok?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Who will acquire TikTok?": Larry Ellison/Oracle 100%, Elon Musk / X (Twitter) 2%, Meta 1% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/45214. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event7 outcomes

Who will acquire TikTok?

·Science and Technology·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$1.1M

vol 24h

$2.9k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 7

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

TikTokTechChinaBig TechFinanceAcquisitions

marketselected outcome

Larry Ellison/Oracle

rank #1 · resolved: yes

100¢

vol cum

$565.1k

vol 24h

spread

0.00

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

timeline

opened · Sep 16, 2025closedresolved · Dec 22, 2025

prices over time · Larry Ellison/Oracle highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history