What is the current probability for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?": Venezuela 22%, Lebanon 17%, Saudi Arabia 14% (top 3 of 16 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/548796. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event16 outcomes

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$341.6k

vol 24h

$19k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 16

SyriaYemenIsraelGeopoliticsMiddle East

marketselected outcome

Venezuela

rank #1

VenezuelaIsrael

22¢

▼ 4.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$20k

vol 24h

$1.5k

spread

0.02

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

timeline

opened · Jun 1, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Venezuela · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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