Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
As of 06:25 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?” at 1% (-1pp in 24h). The market has $232 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Limitless.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
