What is the current probability for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 27% on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73160. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

·Politics

Israel

27%

▲ 0.4pp

24h change

vol cum

$217.3k

vol 24h

$12.1k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 27¢

No 73¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

GazaIsraelGeopoliticsMiddle East

timeline

opened · Nov 5, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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