Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?

Manifold·World

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?” at 70%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

70%

vol cum

M9.2k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2030

Must be largely undisputed. The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.