As of 12:50 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 6 markets in “India strike on Pakistan by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31, 2026” at 9%, “October 31” at 0% and “December 31” at 0%. The event has $6 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Opinion and Manifold.
vol cum
$996.7k
vol 24h
$6
outcomes
6
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
PoliticsIndia-PakistanGeopoliticsWorld
marketselected outcome
December 31, 2026
rank #1
IndiaPakistan
9¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$333.4k
vol 24h
$6
spread
0.02
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
