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event43 outcomes

Iran vs US (props)

Manifold·World·ends Mar 7, 2027
vol cum
M135.4k
vol 24h
M0
outcomes
43
ends
Mar 7, 2027
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Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites. Commands /add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting. /clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous /check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block. Update 2026-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Option #21 (updated from US military deaths to US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026): Casualties definition: Includes service members unavailable for duty due to death (KIA/DOW), wounding (WIA), illness/injury, missing (MIA), or capture. This explicitly includes wounded/injured personnel, not just deaths. Resolution: Based on cumulative official DoD figures or confirmation from major news outlets (Reuters/AP/CNN). Non-hostile casualties tied to the theater/operation count, but unrelated peacetime accidents do not.

iranus-politicsisraeliran-conflict
marketselected outcome
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
rank #1
IranUnited States
100¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M2.1k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Mar 7, 2027
timeline
opened · Mar 7, 2026opencloses · Mar 7, 2027
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 · prices over time
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