Iran vs US (props)
As of 23:37 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 43 markets in “Iran vs US (props)” on Manifold are “US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026” at 100%, “Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026” at 100% and “At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.” at 100%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites. Commands /add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting. /clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous /check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block. Update 2026-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Option #21 (updated from US military deaths to US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026): Casualties definition: Includes service members unavailable for duty due to death (KIA/DOW), wounding (WIA), illness/injury, missing (MIA), or capture. This explicitly includes wounded/injured personnel, not just deaths. Resolution: Based on cumulative official DoD figures or confirmation from major news outlets (Reuters/AP/CNN). Non-hostile casualties tied to the theater/operation count, but unrelated peacetime accidents do not.
