What is the current probability for "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?"?

"Yes" is currently 47% (+5pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/3/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/60692. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

·Politics

United States

47%

▲ 5.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$826.4k

vol 24h

$122.8k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 3, 2027

Yes 47¢

No 54¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

PoliticsCongressSenate

timeline

opened · Oct 17, 2025opencloses · Jan 3, 2027

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