Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?
As of 16:23 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?” at 55% (+1pp in 24h). The market has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement. This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
