Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning). Resolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win. Resolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support. Scheduled 2026 state elections: Baden-Württemberg (8 March) Rhineland-Palatinate (22 March) Saxony-Anhalt (6 September) Berlin (20 September) Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September) For these five scheduled elections held in 2026, the subsequent Prime Minister vote counts even if it takes place in 2027. Example: The only time so far that a prime minister was voted in with necessary votes from the AfD was the election of Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as State Prime Minister of Thuringia in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis). Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on other publicly available information (e.g., coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.
