What is the current probability for "Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory": Farage 30%+ 72%, Farage <10% 9%, Count Binface 9% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 6/30/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/680786. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event6 outcomes

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 6/30/2027.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/680786. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

·Politics·ends Jun 30, 2027

vol cum

$1.1k

vol 24h

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Jun 30, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

UKClactonPoliticsElectionsUK ElectionsUK By-ElectionsUnited KingdomeGlobal Elections

marketselected outcome

Farage 30%+

rank #1

United Kingdom

72¢

▲ 27.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$166

vol 24h

$166

spread

0.01

ends

Jun 30, 2027

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

timeline

opened · Jul 8, 2026opencloses · Jun 30, 2027

Farage 30%+ · prices over time

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