Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027
As of 22:33 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 5 markets in “Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 10% (+1pp in 24h), “July 31” at 0% and “August 31” at 0%. The event has $183 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Limitless and Opinion.
vol cum
$101.6k
vol 24h
$183
outcomes
5
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
IranKhameneiGeopoliticsIran RegimeU.S. x IranIran CeasefireMojtaba KhameneiStrait of Hormuz
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
Iran
10¢
▲ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$1.8k
vol 24h
$183
spread
0.04
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
