Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket·Politics·ends Nov 1, 2026
As of 17:26 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?” on Polymarket are “October 31” at 1%, “July 31” at 0% and “August 31” at 0%. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Limitless, Opinion and Kalshi.
vol cum
$75.5k
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
4
ends
Nov 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
IranKhameneiGeopoliticsIran RegimeU.S. x IranIran CeasefireMojtaba KhameneiStrait of Hormuz
marketselected outcome
October 31
rank #1
Iran
1¢
vol cum
$3.9k
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.02
ends
Nov 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
