What is the current probability for "US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 24% (+1pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73040. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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marketsingle market

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

·Crypto

24%

▲ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$44.4k

vol 24h

$14

spread

0.02

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 24¢

No 76¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CryptoFinanceBitcoinPoliticsGov Reserve

timeline

opened · Nov 5, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history