What is the current probability for "Yoon out of custody before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 11% (+3pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73073. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

·Politics

South Korea

11%

▲ 2.6pp

24h change

vol cum

$115.1k

vol 24h

$12.5k

spread

0.02

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 11¢

No 89¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PoliticsWorldGeopoliticsSouth Korea

timeline

opened · Nov 5, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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